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The 2021 MLB Lockout

So MLB locked out its players early today.  This is the first labor "stoppage" since the strike of 1994 that led to the cancellation of the World Series that year.

Remember the Montreal Expos?  They are now the Washington Nationals.  They were leading their division when play stopped in 1994.  Les Expos had a really good chance to make the playoffs that year had it not been for the strike.

But I digress.

Strikes and lockouts are collective bargaining strategies meant to apply pressure to the other side, with the hope that the strategy will drive negotiations towards one's own side.

But both strikes and lockouts have consequences for one's own side.  When an employer, such as MLB, locks out its workers, new product cannot be produced and sold.  All else equal, that leads to a reduction in sales for the employer.  Hopefully, from the employer's perception, the lockout will be worse for the union than it will be for the employer.

When a union strikes, union workers do not work and do not bring home a paycheck.  All else equal, that hurts union workers.  But, like the employer, the union hopes that the strike is more costly for the employer than it is for the union.

Back to MLB. The lockout was expected, and given that it's the offseason it's not a big deal for fans.  And since it's the offseason, nothing with spring training or no regular season games will get cancelled.  So the lockout is not nearly as costly for either side as it would be if spring training was going on or if it were the regular season.

It also means that the urge to get a new CBA done is not all that strong right now.  But as we get closer to spring training, negotiations, and leaks to the press,will ramp up because that's when the pressure ramps up for both sides.

Are Youth Sports Leagues Natural Monopolies?

Professional sports leagues are thought by many to be natural monopolies.  This makes sense because fans of a sport want to have one overall champion in a sports.  Who's the best?  Since there is one champion, the most efficient number of leagues will be one.

How does this work with youth sports?  In my town, the Mankato Area Youth Baseball Association (MAYBA) is the only amateur summer baseball league in town.  They make their money by selling spots on teams to parents of young players.  They field "in house" teams which play each other within the city and they field travel teams under the moniker of "The Royals" which play games against teams from other cities.  In both types, there are teams for the various age groups, and in Royals there can be multiple teams within an age group, such as 15AAA, 15AA, 15A, and 15/14A.  These are teams for 15-year olds and the more A's means a better overall team quality. 15/14 means the team is a mixture of 15 and 14 year olds.  The AAA's play other AAA's, the AA's play other AA's etc.

In my town MAYBA is the only youth baseball organization,. but that doesn't make youth baseball organizations natural monopolies in general.  To be natural, there needs to be global economies of scale.  Is this the case with youth sports organizations?  I'll just leave this post open ended.

Are the Cubs That Bad, or is the NL Central Really Good?

I’m aware that they are in the toughest division in baseball. I’m also aware that they’re still on pace for 90-plus losses and that not all of it is attributable to the difficulty of being in the Central.

That's a comment from the Sun Times' Rick Morrissey in this column.

Really?  According to this morning's stats from Baseball Reference, the Cubs W-L record is 3-10 against Cin, 3-5 against Mil, 5-7 against Pit, and 2-4 against STL.  So they are 13-26 against teams in the NL Central and 27-22 against everyone else they've played so far.  Heck, take away the record against Cincy, and the Cubs are 1 run below 0.500 against everyone else they've played.  

Furthermore, as of this morning, there are 8 clubs in the majors with 50 or more wins.  3 of those teams are in the NL Central, the only division that can make that boast altough the AL East has two teams within 2 wins of 50.  With only one team below 0.500 (Toronto at 3 games below), the AL is the best division record-wise from top to bottom, but the NL Central has three really good teams that have kept the Cubbies from flying the W flagas often as they might have.  

The Cubs this year are not as bad as their record might indicate although they, and particularly their bullpen, have induced many Excedrin moments for their fans.

An Alternate History of the Chicago Cubs

Via Mark Stratton.  Nothing has been verified by the staff at MP.

20 Things That Have Happened Since The Chicago Cubs Last Won The World Series

  1. Chicago Cubs Logo Radio was invented; Cub fans got to hear their team lose.
  2. TV was invented; Cub fans got to see their team lose.
  3. Baseball added 14 teams; Cub fans got to see AND hear their team lose to more teams.
  4. George Burns celebrated his 10th, 20th, 30th, 40th, 50th, 60th, 70th, 80th, 90th and 100th birthdays.
  5. Haley’s Comet passed Earth… twice.
  6. Harry Caray was born… and died. Incredible, but true.
  7. The NBA, NHL and NFL were formed, and Chicago teams won championships in each league.
  8. Man landed on the moon, as have several home runs given up by Cubs pitchers.
  9. Sixteen US presidents were elected.
10. There were 11 amendments added to the Constitution.
11. Prohibition was created, and repealed.
12. The Titanic was built, set sail, sank, was discovered, and became the subject of major motion pictures… the latter giving Cub fans hope that something that finishes on the bottom can come out on top.
13. Wrigley Field was built and becomes the oldest park in the National League.
14. Flag poles were erected on Wrigley Field roof to hold all of the team’s future World Series pennants. Those flag poles have since rusted and been taken down.  (I LOL whenever I read that one).
15. A combination of 40 summer & winter Olympics have been held.
16. Thirteen baseball players have won the Triple Crown; several thanked Cubs pitchers.
17. Bell bottoms came in style, went out of style, and came back in style.
18. The Cleveland Indians, Boston Red Sox, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Florida Marlins have ALL won the World Series.
19. The Cubs played 14,153 regular-season games; they lost the majority of them.
20. Alaska, Arizona, Hawaii, Oklahoma, and New Mexico were added to the Union.

Just you wait until next year.  We're going to win it next year!

"Epic Rain Delay Theatre"

The Western Kentucky and Flrodia Atlantic Baseball teams recently experienced a lengthy rain delay in one of their games.  But they made the best of it by putting on some creative and humorous skits.  Here, for your enjoyment, is Rain Delay Theatre.

I like the wrestling match.  Here's the FAU website with the video.  Via Mike Moffat.

Competition and Player Salaries: The Impact of the Federal League by JC Bradbury

Here is a note that JC Bradbury wrote and posted over at Facebook.  It's on a topic that I have discussed in my sports economics course: that the Federal League presented the AL and NL with competition in the labor market for baseball players and, much to the leagues' dismay, drove salaries upward (as you would expect).  I copy and paste the entire post below.

Last week, Maury Brown released The Biz of Baseball MLB Salary Database. It’s still in beta mode, so I decided to test it out this weekend.

One interesting feature of the database is that it includes some salaries from far back in baseball’s history. The database is not comprehensive (nor should it be expected to be) but the data that is there provides an opportunity to analyze salaries at a key times in baseball history.

For example, in 1914, the Federal League began play as a competing major league. It lasted for two seasons until reaching an agreement with the American and National Leagues. During its two years of operation it raided AL and NL rosters for its players, ignoring the reserve clause that was keeping salaries below the competitive level. Most of the jumpers left in 1914 (80 players), with 16 additional players joining the FL in 1915.

The agreement between the AL and NL created a monopsony for baseball talent, because each team represented a single buyer for its player’s services. The FL added competition for baseball talent, and even if players didn’t jump, their wages were likely to raise from the threat of jumping. While I don’t think anyone would disagree with this in theory, it would be nice to observe this effect. Someone may have examined this before, but I haven’t seen it.

Though the salary data is not comprehensive, it’s possible to track players who play over consecutive seasons to see how their salaries changed from the previous year. Salaries are affected by many factors; however, by tracking percentage-changes for individuals, player quality is approximately constant. I looked at a ten-year sample from 1910–1919, tracking an average of 16 players per year (ranging from 9 to 28 players). The figure below maps the average annual changes over the sample.

Before the Federal League became a major league, the AL and NL showed healthy salary growth, which is consistent with their average annual attendance growth of 4.5% from 1901–1913. During the FL’s inaugural season in 1914, there was a drastic spike in salary growth. 1915 also showed a 27% rise in salaries, which is the third-greatest change in the sample. In 1916, after the league disbanded, salaries rose only a paltry 7%; and in 1917, salaries fell by 3%—the only negative year in the sample. In 1918 and 1919, salary growth was 16% and 11%, muted compared to what it was before and after the entrance of the FL.

Thus, the available evidence is consistent with economic theory. New competition raised player salaries, and after the competition went away (buying off the owners most likely to start a new league) salary growth was depressed.

Thanks to Maury Brown and the other folks over at The Biz of Baseball Network for making this tool available.

(Source for the historical info: Quirk and Fort, Pay Dirt, pp. 313–319)

Mark Cuban Interested in Buying the Dodgers

Mark Cuban was kept out of the running for the buying of the Chicago Cubs, but he's still interested in buying an MLB team.  From the LA Times.

Mark Cuban, the high-profile owner of the NBA's Dallas Mavericks, said Monday he would consider adding the Dodgers to his portfolio.

As the unusually public Dodgers' divorce saga plays out, Cuban said he has heard from many Dodgers fans appealing to him to buy the team.

"More than I can count," Cuban wrote in an e-mail.

MLB had little interest in him as a buyer of the Cubs, so I don't know why they would be interested in having him as a member of their country club as the owner of the Dodgers.

I Predict More Calls for a Salary Cap in MLB

Congratulations to the Yankees and their fans for the Yankees' victory over the Philly Phil's in the 2009 World Series.  Now that that's over, I predict we'll hear more calls for salary restrictions in the name of competitive balance now that the big, bad Yanks have returned to the throne.  Never mind that baseball already has a luxury tax, aka a Yankees Tax, that is designed to alter the balance of competition in baseball and never mind that it has been several years since the Yanks last made the Series, let alone won it.  What many people want is a salary cap.

Keep in mind that college sports already has a salary cap on player wages.  Still, the same teams keep showing up in the top 25 rankings year after year after year.  Sure, there is always going to be some churning in the polls and within conferences.  Randomness is inherent in sports and is a big reason for the churning.  But in football, Texas and Oklahoma continue to dominate the Big 12.  Michigan and Ohio State continue to dominate the Big 10.  And the same teams keep showing up in the gutters.  Yes, I'm thinking of you Baylor and Duke. 

Nebraska has been down for some time now, but I expect they'll be back on top of the heap that is the Big 12 North.  If you haven't noticed, they have sold out there stadium (which now seats over 80,000) for the better part of the past 5 decades.  Every. Game. Since. The. Early. Sixties.

And what of women's basketball in college?  They also are encumbered by a salary cap and the competition is dominated by Tennessee, Duke, Baylor and a few others.

The main driver of competitive balance, especially when considered over the long haul, is the underlying demand that each team faces.  It is this demand that drives the revenue schools bring in and that drives the demand for players, coaches, facilities, etc.  The Yankees and Red Sox have had the upper hand in the AL east for years because they have a higher demand for their games relative to their divisional bretheren.  Duke and North Carolina dominate ACC basketball because they have higher demand relative to their conference mates. 

So what do salary caps do?  Instituting salary caps forces teams to find other ways to compete for talent, but it does not alter the underlying demand that teams face.  So salary caps will, therefore, not alter competitive balance.  If you want to level the playing field, you need to level the demand that teams face first.

Good luck with that.

Life as a Minor Leaguer

Garrett Broshius, a former Mizzou Tiger, chronicles his season in a blog for Baseball America.  Here is his post about getting promoted and then demoted within a couple of days.  An excerpt:

I felt like someone had tied me to a road, poured hot asphalt upon me, and taken a steam-roller to me—not once, but a dozen times as if all of the hope left in my seemingly meaningless baseball existence needed to be purged, made flatter than the pre-Columbus earth. I wished more than anything to be given another chance. I hadn't made a good first impression, but being the type of pitcher that can study hitters and adjust accordingly, I hoped to make a couple more starts. This foolish hope expunged, I again couldn't sleep.

Read the whole thing.

Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities

Reviving Baseball in Inner Cities.  "We’re telling kids you don’t have to quit basketball, but you can add baseball."