No surprise here:
A key rationale for fiscal stimulus is to boost consumption when aggregate demand is perceived to be inefficiently low. We examine the ability of the government to increase consumption by evaluating the impact of the 2009 “Cash for Clunkers” program on short and medium run auto purchases. Our empirical strategy exploits variation across U.S. cities in ex-ante exposure to the program as measured by the number of “clunkers” in the city as of the summer of 2008. We find that the program induced the purchase of an additional 360,000 cars in July and August of 2009. However, almost all of the additional purchases under the program were pulled forward from the very near future; the effect of the program on auto purchases is almost completely reversed by as early as March 2010 – only seven months after the program ended. The effect of the program on auto purchases was significantly more short-lived than previously suggested. We also find no evidence of an effect on employment, house prices, or household default rates in cities with higher exposure to the program.
That's from a new working paper at the NBER by Atif Mian and Amir Sufi.
Although it hasn't made the headlines like cash for clunkers did, there is a program giving tax incentives to homeowners who put more energy-efficient heating and air conditioning units in their homes. My wife and I took advantage of the credits and replaced our nearly 20 year-old units. We were going to replace them anyways, but we installed the units a bit earlier than expected. Once the tax credits expire, the heating and air conditioning market will clunk like the automobile market did after cash for clunkers expired.