From Yahoo! Sports (HT Paula Lazarus)
Following in its grand tradition of predicting can't miss future superstars like Schea Cotton and Tamir Goodman, Sports Illustrated is using the cover of this week's magazine to tout the 16-year-old Las Vegas resident as "the most exciting prodigy since LeBron."
Writes SI's Tom Verducci:
"Still only 16, Harper stands 6'3", weighs 205 pounds, has faster bat speed than Mark McGwire in his prime and runs so fast that he scored on wild pitches six times this season from second base. As a catcher he picks off runners from his knees, and when he pitches, he throws a fastball that has been clocked at 96 mph.
"When James was 16, he was a high school sophomore with an NBA game and a body to match. Harper has been compared to Justin Upton(notes), Alex Rodriguez(notes) and Ken Griffey Jr.(notes), each a freakishly advanced high school player and each the top overall pick of his draft. But Harper, say the baseball men who are paid to make such assessments, has the ability as a sophomore that the aforementioned trio had as seniors."
As Mizzou head football coach Gary Pinkel likes to say about gifted young players that the fans and the media deem as saviors: let's not go building him any statues just yet.
No doubt that Mr. Harper has some talent and skills on the diamond. But remember that he is competing against other high schoolers and has not turned pro yet. On the hitting side, when he does get to the pros, he'll be using a wooden bat against better pitching than he saw in high school. Can he make the adjustment?
In addition, when he moves on to the next level, he'll likely be subjected to the "big pond, little fish" syndrome that tends to shock just about every athlete who makes that move. When he gets to the minors, (or the college level if he so chooses) every teammate and opponent will have been the best kid on his high school team and summer-league teams. Can he handle it? I've never heard of Mr. Harper before today, so I can't judge.
The hoopla reminds me of another can't-miss prospect back, this one from the 1980's: Gregg Jeffries. The hoopla that surrounded him was a bit different than that surrounding Mr. Harper. Mr. Jeffries began his career with the New York Mets. The Mets were one of the dominant franchises of the mid 1980's, winning the World Series in 1986 with the likes of talents Darryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden. But they failed to win their division in 1987 and lost in the NLCS to the Dodgers in 1988. They wanted to reach the biggest stage of the biggest stage again and they wanted a player to build around. Jeffries was that player.
He had won three minor league player of the year awards in the Mets' farm system and the team marketed him as being the savior of their system. They decided to build the Mets around him. While he had a nice career no doubt, he was far from being the superstar he was built up to be and he won't be enshrined in the BBHOF.
Here and here are some interesting tidbits on Jeffries from the perspective of fans who watched him.
The path to superstardom is littered with the careers of so-called can't miss prospects: Felix Pie, Corey Patterson, and Mark Prior for instance. Before we go building Mr. Harper's Cooperstown statue, we should let him actually, you know, do something in the majors first.