Harford on Solving Ties in the NFL

In my most recent post at The Sports Economist*, I write about Tim Harford's Slate article about a novel way to distribute the ball in overtime in the NFL.  He notes that the team that wins the coin toss, as currently done in the NFL, is much more likely to win the game.  He describes a "divide and choose" method and an auction method as alternatives to the coin toss.  In the divide and choose method,

The coin-toss loser would decide how far forward the offense would start—say, the 30-yard line. The coin-toss winner would then decide whether to take possession or let the coin-toss loser have the ball at the 30. The nice thing about these rules is that they would naturally adapt to the game's changing dynamics. The current system, by contrast, seems to have been fair when introduced in 1974, but as field-goal kickers became more accurate, possession has become more valuable.

Here's the auction method.

An even more elegant solution to the overtime problem was proposed in 2002 by Chris Quanbeck, an electrical engineer (and Green Bay Packers fan). Quanbeck's idea was to auction off possession of the ball in the natural currency of the game: field position. The team that was willing to begin closest to its own goal line would receive the privilege of possession.

My mind keeps going back to the 1997 Missouri vs. Nebraska game in Columbia, the so-called kicked-ball game.  Heavy-underdog Mizzou held a late 7 point lead, but Nebraska, the number one team in the land, had the ball and was driving.  They ended up scoring the tying touchdown on a pass from Scott Frost that was intended for Shevin Wiggins.  Wiggins could not gain control of the ball, but it took a fortuitous bounce towards and landed on his right foot.  He quickly kicked the ball into the air and it was caught by Matt Davidson just before it hit the ground in the endzone.  They made the extra point and the game went to OT.

Mizzou players were visibly worn down, physically and mentally.  Nebraska scored easily in OT and stuffed Mizzou in their turn.

I wonder, if there were such an auction system described by Harford above, how far back would Nebraska have taken the ball.  My guess is that they could have scored a touchdown, not to mention a field goal, from any starting point on the field.

*I completely forgot to thank John Palmer for the link to the Harford piece.  Sorry, John.