If I weren't such a chicken, I'd go with #3. I've said before on this blog that oil won't stay above $100/barrel for long. I don't have a fancy model, just an intuition that there's plenty of oil out there in costly to extract places where extraction costs -- although well above Saudi levels -- are also below $100/barrel. It's a matter if doing the engineering. And then there's the factor energy saving technologies, and development of alternative energy sources.
If the new extraction will involve large up-front expenditures, then I can definitely see this. Once the investment has been made, then the cost is sunk and as long as the marginal cost of extracting the oil from these new "wells" is less than $100, then oil will sell for less than $100 a barrel.
Of course there's probably oil out there that, without government restrictions, would be extracted, lowering world oil prices towards the $100 level.