I try not to be one of those that thumbs his nose at forecasters, having done forecasting for awhile myself. That being said, the hurricane forecast for 2006 has been revised again. In May, the forecast was for:
They expect 17 named tropical storms to form, nine of which are expected to develop into hurricanes. Of those nine, five will grow into at least Category 3, or major, hurricanes.
Those numbers keep getting revised downwards. And they should be revised as new information becomes available. Like I said, I won't thumb my nose at the forecasters, but I liked a comment by Carl Parker of the The Weather Channel who, after a report on the revision, said the following last week with a very sarcastic grin:
Are you allowed to bet on the ponies as they're coming down the final stretch? Just wondering.
Update: Doc has a post on hurricanes today too.