I have written many times in this space of the internet on why we won't run out of oil. I ran across a tidbit about Toyota in the news this weekend. John Palmer picked it up and ran with it this evening:
The Toyota Motor Corporation said this week that all its vehicles would eventually be run by hybrid gasoline-electric motors, as record fuel prices curb demand for conventional automobiles.
"In the future, the cars you see from Toyota will be 100 percent hybrid," Kazuo Okamoto, executive vice president, told reporters in Frankfurt Monday, without giving a specific timetable.
... The company is planning to sell 240,000 to 250,000 hybrids this year and a million a year by 2010. [This link courtesy of Jack]But what if the price of gasoline does not stay this high in real terms? There are several good arguments for expecting world oil prices to stop rising (and probably to fall in real terms; see here and here). If that happens, there will be far less interest in hybrids, and Toyota would be unlikely to implement this plan.
For Toyota to be prepared, in case oil prices rise, is probably wise. For them not to announce a timetable, in case oil prices do not rise, is also probably wise.
People respond to incentives. High gas prices gives people an incentive to conserve. Consumers respond by using less gas. Car companies respond by developing products that they think consumers will want. If they think consumers want to buy cars that use less gas, they will respond by developing them. Other entrepreneurs try to find substitutes for gasoline. All these activities will have the effect of ensuring that we will never run out of oil.
Of course, as I've said before, if public officials put caps on the price of oil, then all bets are off.
Of course, in Minnesota, we have laws that keep the price of gasoline high!